Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
